Month: September 2012

World Cup 2014 Qualifiers – Under the Radar

Scotland could surprise

With UEFA World Cup Qualifying kicking off tomorrow, I wanted to take one quick, final look at a couple teams who could offer some value.  A few with short odds and one team with a little bit longer odds.

Scotland – Home field advantage is crucial here, as the Scots perform much better than on the road.  The Serbs are the exact opposite and fare much worse on the road.  After a 3-1 win over Australia just a few weeks ago, taking Scotland at +165 could prove to be a smart move.

Croatia – The Croatians are a deserving large favorite against Macedonia.  Despite some recent struggles, Croatia is a standard team that beats the teams they should and occasionally can get a good result against a top team.  In the past year, when Croatia plays a lower ranked team in Crotistics, they are 5-0.  Macedonia should not provide much difficulty at home.

Argentina – Saying that Argentina is under the radar seems a bit ridiculous, but that’s exactly what’s going on here.  At -280, this is a relative bargain.  Argentina has been absolutely demolishing competition in 2012, and Paraguay is definitely not what they were in the past.  They will be playing for a tie and won’t get it.

Good luck tomorrow if you decide to place a few wagers.


Early September World Cup Qualifiers


The time has come to get back into World Cup Qualifiers betting.  Crotistics is looking at a 3 team parlay this Friday across confederations.  As stated earlier this summer, 2 teams are presenting tremendous opportunity.

First, Russia will host Northern Ireland.  Perhaps the odds makers are a little bit concerned by the lack of Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko in the Russia lineup.  I was able to grab the Russians at -400 but it looks like you will have to give up a little more and take them at -450 now.  Russia is going to win this game easily.  Northern Ireland’s last 3 road games were at Estonia, Italy and the Netherlands.  They lost all 3 by scores of 4-1, 3-0, 6-0.  This trend will continue.

Next, England appears to be in a similar situation where the lack of Wayne Rooney is preventing this line from being even larger.  England is still plenty talented without Rooney, and Moldova does not perform well against quality competition.  Crotistics currently has England at #4 in the world and Moldova at #151.  While I think the score may not be large (something in the range of 2-0), England should win this game.

Lastly, we head to South America where I like Ecuador to beat Bolivia at home.  Bolivia was able to steal a draw at Argentina last November, but this is more the exception than the rule.  At home, Ecuador is dominant.  They don’t allow goals, and they really don’t have much difficulty scoring.  Ecuador currently sits at #3 in my rankings.  Taking them at -275 is really very low risk.

These 3 in a parlay will actually produce a return of around 1.25 times your bet.  The odds would indicate that your chances of hitting this parlay at less than 50%.  I estimate the odds of this parlay hitting at over 70%.  There is tremendous value here, and playing this right could yield some nice profits early this season.